ForwardKeys is Deciphering Brazil's Mid-Year Holiday Travel Demand

As Brazil gears up for its mid-year holidays in July, destination managers and businesses are turning to travel intelligence to gain a competitive edge by effectively forecasting demand. With domestic travel within Brazil showing increased interest during this year’s holiday season, having access to accurate and timely data is crucial for success.

Mid-Year Holidays Prompt Increased Interest in Domestic Travel

Forward-looking air ticketing data reveals a growing interest in domestic travel during the upcoming mid-year holidays. Brazilians show a greater inclination to explore their own country, with domestic departures in July 2024 representing 60% of all flights from Brazil, up from 56% during the same month in 2023.

Among the domestic destinations experiencing a surge in popularity, Brazil’s two largest cities are witnessing a significant increase over 2023 as expressed by flight searches for travel to those destinations, indicating a strong demand for urban getaways. Sao Paulo (+7 percentage points) and Rio de Janeiro (+2 p.p.) both show an increased share of overall flight searches compared to the previous year. Sao Paulo, in particular, benefits from improved domestic connectivity, making it easier for travellers to reach the city from various parts of the country.

The Importance of Connectivity in Balancing Tourism Dispersion

Current trends suggest that the gap between top-tier destinations and mid–sized or smaller destinations is widening. Comparing flight searches in July 2023 and 2024 for domestic travel reveals much higher growth for Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro than the next highest performers Fortaleza, Recife (-1 p.p. each), or Salvador (±0 p.p.).

As a result, the two leading cities have increased their total share of domestic flight searches by 9 percentage points in a year, to 23%, while other domestic destinations maintain or lose share. This highlights the risk of increasingly over-centralised demand unless efforts are made to enhance connectivity and promote alternative options.

Seat Capacity: Airlines Betting on International Connectivity

As airlines adapt to the evolving travel landscape, international connectivity is improving ahead of domestic, with June to August 2024 showing growth of +20% in international seat capacity, but only +5% in domestic, when compared to the same period in 2023.

Sao Paulo is experiencing balanced growth in both international and domestic connectivity with seat capacity increases of +11% and +7% respectively —strengthening its position as a global hub.

Elsewhere, the picture is equally optimistic. Rio de Janeiro (+36%) shows a remarkable expansion of connectivity with European markets like the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany and Italy (a new connection in 2024) in addition to intra-regional connectivity. Minas Gerais (+60%) shows a substantial boost in capacity to and from the U.S.A, while Bahia (+57%) benefits from increased connections to Argentina and the Federal District (+24%) sees increased travel from regional markets.

Promising Outlook for International Demand

Alongside the focus on domestic travel during the mid-year holidays, the outlook for international demand in Brazil remains promising. This period coincides with the summer season in the northern hemisphere, and critical markets are showing positive signs, particularly the U.S.A. (+7%) and Canada (+9%) in North America, and Italy (+24%) and Spain (+27%) among European markets.

The European exception is France (-6%), where reduced outbound demand can be attributed to the Paris Olympics keeping French travellers at home. On a positive note, the resurgence of demand from South Korea (+31%) signals the comeback of Asian tourism, adding to the diversity of international visitors.

The Power of Travel Intelligence and Forward-Looking Data

When navigating the complexities of the travel industry, especially during peak seasons like the mid-year holidays, comprehensive travel intelligence and accurate forward-looking data are invaluable assets. By leveraging these insights, destination managers and businesses can anticipate travel trends, optimise their operations, and make informed decisions to balance tourism management effectively and sustainably.

As Brazilian destinations prepare to welcome both domestic and international visitors during the mid-year holidays, the importance of staying ahead of the curve cannot be overstated. By harnessing the power of ForwardKeys’ travel intelligence and adapting to the changing preferences of travellers, destinations and travel-dependent businesses can position themselves for growth and success.

Stay tuned for more in-depth insights as we navigate through some of the wider factors affecting Brazil’s tourism performance — revealing why quality data is the key to success in a rapidly evolving and highly competitive global tourism landscape.

ForwardKeys will be participating in WTM Latin America to present additional insights on Brazil travel trends. Join us at the event, taking place in São Paulo from April 15 to 17, 2024.

Connect with us to schedule a meeting and delve into the latest travel data and trends. We look forward to seeing you there!

Register here.