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ADR gains outpace near-term inflation, but wages are a headwind
A Pictorial Update on Our Latest Thoughts and the Facts and Figures Influencing Our Industry
The CBRE Hotels Research State of the Union showcases a pictorial review of current hotel trends, leading and coincident indicators of hotel demand, and an update on cost pressures and margin flow-through. The report showcases current demand trends, as well as fundamentals by segment, location type and chain scale. The report also provides a brief update on short-term rental, group business, and capital market trends, the transaction market, the impact of virtual work and the outlook for office vacancy.
Key Takeaways
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New this month – nominal consumer credit card balances are at an all-time high, and at a ratio of 2 to 1, the number of job openings to job seekers is the highest in 20 years.
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Macroeconomic indicators are softening. CBRE forecasts a steep decline in GDP growth. Inflation is expected to remain elevated through the end of the year, and unemployment is expected to increase.
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For now, ADR continues to outpace elevated inflation levels, however, we expect ADR growth to moderate in the second half of the year and beyond.
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June RevPAR growth continued to exceed 2019 levels for the fourth month in a row because of strong leisure travel and high ADR growth. All location types exceeded 2019 RevPAR levels except for urban hotels.
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International outbound expenditures have continued to rise as inbound expenditures have dropped off because of a strong dollar. Geographic disparities remain as international travel continues to rebound. Inbound international travel remains strongest in the East, but the West Coast is gaining steam.
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Short term rental demand has normalized. Similarly, to hotel markets, southern leisure drive to markets are outperforming urban markets.
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Brand.com continued to gain market share during Q2 from 19% to 21% compared to 2019.
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