The U.S. economy will continue to softly expand for the rest of 2023, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2023 Semiannual Economic Forecast.
Expectations for the remainder of 2023 are similar to those expressed in December 2022, despite continued inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Manufacturing SummaryRevenue for 2023 is expected to increase, on average, by 1.7 percent. This is 3.8 percentage points lower than the December 2022 forecast of 5.5 percent, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 9.3-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2022. Forty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent compared to 2022. Twenty percent say revenues will decrease (14.6 percent, on average), and 40 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 82 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (0.4 percent), prices paid for raw materials (2.3 percent) and employment (0.5 percent) by the end of 2023, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil that began in 2020 and is expected to continue through this year. "With 10 manufacturing sector industries expecting revenue growth in 2023 and 11 industries expecting employment growth in 2023, panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year, albeit somewhat softer than originally expected. Sentiment in each sector was generally consistent with industry performance reports in the April 2023 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, as well as the fall Semiannual Economic Forecast conducted in December," says Fiore.
Ten of 18 industries report projected revenue increases for the rest of 2023, listed in order: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
Services SummaryRespondents expect a 2.7-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 3.1-percent increase forecast in December 2022. Thirty-eight percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 10.2 percent compared to 2022. Meanwhile, 11 percent expect their revenues to decrease (11.1 percent, on average), and 51 percent indicate no change. "The services sector will continue to grow for the rest of 2023. Services companies are currently operating at 91 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 4.3 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 0.7 percent. Fourteen industries forecast increased revenues, down from the 14 industries that predicted increases in December 2022," says Nieves.
Fourteen of 18 industries expect revenue increases in 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
OPERATING RATE
ManufacturingPurchasing and supply executives report that their companies are operating, on average, at 82 percent of normal capacity, 6.4 percentage points lower than the figure reported in December 2022. The 11 industries reporting operating capacity levels above the average rate of 82 percent — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
Services
Organizations are operating, on average, at 91 percent of normal capacity, according to Business Survey Committee respondents. This is 1.1 percentage points higher compared to December 2022. The 10 industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 91 percent — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; and Information.
| Operating Rate | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| May 2022 | Dec 2022 | May 2023 | May 2022 | Dec 2022 | May 2023 | |
| 90%+ | 57 % | 57 % | 41 % | 65 % | 66 % | 69 % |
| 50%-89% | 42 % | 41 % | 55 % | 34 % | 32 % | 30 % |
| Below 50% | 1 % | 2 % | 4 % | 1 % | 2 % | 1 % |
| Overall Average | 87.2 % | 88.4 % | 82.0 % | 91.0 % | 89.9 % | 91.0 % |
PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Manufacturing
Production capacity is expected to increase 0.4 percentage point in 2023; in December, panelists reported an increase of 6.7 percent for 2022 and projected an increase of 5.3 percent this year. Twenty-six percent of respondents expect capacity increase of, on average, 12.3 percent; 14 percent expect decreases of, on average, 18.7 percent; and 60 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2023 — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
| Manufacturing Production Capacity | ||||||
| For 2022 | For 2023 | For 2023 | ||||
| Reported Dec 2022 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2022 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 49 % | +15.4 % | 43 % | +13.0 % | 26 % | +12.3 % |
| Same | 44 % | NA | 52 % | NA | 60 % | NA |
| Lower | 7 % | -12.4 % | 4 % | -8.4 % | 14 % | -18.7 % |
| Net Average | +6.7 % | +5.3 % | +0.4 % | |||
ServicesThe capacity to produce products or provide services in the services sector is expected to increase 2 percent in 2023. This compares to an increase of 3.9 percent reported for 2022 and a December projection of a 3.4-percent increase for this year. Seventeen percent of services respondents expect their capacity for 2023 to increase, on average, 16.4 percent, and 5 percent foresee capacity decreasing, on average, 16.5 percent. Seventy-eight percent expect no change in capacity. The 11 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2023 — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services.
| Services Production or Provision Capacity | ||||||
| For 2022 | For 2023 | For 2023 | ||||
| Reported Dec 2022 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2022 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 34 % | +14.9 % | 37 % | +9.8 % | 17 % | +16.4 % |
| Same | 57 % | NA | 61 % | NA | 78 % | NA |
| Lower | 9 % | -12.3 % | 2 % | -10.7 % | 5 % | -16.5 % |
| Net Average | +3.9 % | +3.4 % | +2.0 % | |||
PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2023 vs. 2022
ManufacturingSurvey respondents expect a 0.4-percent point increase in capital expenditures in 2023, lower than the 2.6-percent increase forecast by the panel in December. Twenty-four percent of respondents predict increased (on average, 23.6 percent) capital expenditures in 2023, 20 percent said their capital spending would decrease (on average, 26.7 percent), and 56 percent expect no change. The eight industries expecting capital expenditure increases for 2023 — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Services
This year, services purchasing and supply executives expect a capital expenditures increase of 4 percent compared to 2022. The 40 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 18.2 percent, 15 percent anticipate an average decrease of 21.2 percent, and 45 percent expect no change in capital expenditures in 2023. The 13 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.
| Predicted Capital Expenditures 2023 vs. 2022 | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted Dec 2022 | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2022 | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 33 % | 24 % | +23.6 % | 38 % | 40 % | +18.2 % |
| Same | 48 % | 56 % | NA | 43 % | 45 % | NA |
| Lower | 19 % | 20 % | -26.7 % | 19 % | 15 % | -21.2 % |
| Net Average | +2.6 % | +0.4 % | +2.8 % | +4.0 % | ||
PRICES — Changes Between End of 2022 and May 2023
ManufacturingIn the December forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 2.5 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2023; they report prices increased by 2.3 percent. The 47 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2022 report an average increase of 8.6 percent, while 23 percent reported lower prices (by 7.7 percent, on average). The remaining 30 percent indicated no change for the period. Fourteen manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2023, listed in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Chemical Products.
ServicesServices respondents report that purchases during the first four months of this year cost an average of 5.1 percent more than at the end of 2022. This is 0.3 percentage point less than the 5.4-percent increase predicted in December. Sixty-four percent of services respondents report that prices increased, on average, 8.9 percent; 9 percent report price decreases of, on average, 5.9 percent; and 27 percent indicate no change. Seventeen of 18 industries reported an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2023, listed in order: Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.
| Prices – Changes Between End of 2022 and May 2023 | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 56 % | 47 % | +8.6 % | 70 % | 64 % | +8.9 % |
| Same | 23 % | 30 % | NA | 19 % | 27 % | NA |
| Lower | 21 % | 23 % | -7.7 % | 11 % | 9 % | -5.9 % |
| Net Average | +2.5 % | +2.3 % | +5.4 % | +5.1 % | ||
PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023
ManufacturingSurvey respondents expect a year-over-year, net-average prices increase of 1 percent for 2023. With respondents reporting price increases of 2.3 percent through April 2023, prices are projected to ease slightly over the rest of the year. Forty percent of respondents project prices to increase, on average, 7.5 percent for the full year, 24 percent anticipate a decrease (8.2 percent, on average), and 36 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expect price increases for all of 2023, listed in order are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; and Furniture & Related Products.
ServicesThis year, services respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 4.3 percent compared to the end of 2022. With respondents reporting an increase of 5.1 percent through April 2023, prices are projected to decrease over the rest of the year. Fifty-four percent of respondents anticipate increases of, on average, 9.3 percent; 11 percent expect decreases of, on average, 6 percent; and 35 percent do not expect prices to change. Seventeen of 18 industries project price increases for all of 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Retail Trade.
| Prices – Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023 | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted Dec 2022 | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted Dec 2022 | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 50 % | 40 % | +7.5 % | 73 % | 54 % | +9.3 % |
| Same | 23 % | 36 % | NA | 16 % | 35 % | NA |
| Lower | 28 % | 24 % | -8.2 % | 11 % | 11 % | -6.0 % |
| Net Average | +2.0 % | +1.0 % | +8.4 % | +4.3 % | ||
EMPLOYMENT
Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023
ManufacturingISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that sector employment in 2023 will increase 0.5 percentage point year over year. Twenty-five percent of respondents expect employment to be, on average, 7.6 percent higher; 15 percent predict employment to decrease, on average, 9 percent; and 60 percent expect employment levels to be unchanged. The 11 industries projecting employment growth during 2023 — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.
ServicesSector employment will increase 0.7 percent in 2023, according to the forecast of ISM's Services Business Survey Committee respondents. For the remaining months of the year, 27 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 6.9 percent; 15 percent anticipate employment to decrease, on average, 7.6 percent; and 58 percent expect no change in employment levels. The 11 industries anticipating increases in employment — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Educational Services.
| Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023 | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Predicted for 2023 Dec 2022 | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | Predicted for 2023 Dec 2022 | Predicted May 2023 | Magnitude of Change | |
| Higher | 42 % | 25 % | +7.6 % | 40 % | 27 % | +6.9 % |
| Same | 49 % | 60 % | NA | 41 % | 58 % | NA |
| Lower | 9 % | 15 % | -9.0 % | 19 % | 15 % | -7.6 % |
| Net Average | +3.9 % | +0.5 % | +1.0 % | +0.7 % | ||
BUSINESS REVENUES
Business Revenues Comparison — 2023 vs. 2022
ManufacturingIncreased revenues are expected this year, as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 1.7 percent compared to 2022. This is 3.8 percentage points lower than the 5.5-percent increase forecast in December, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 9.3-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2022. Forty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent; 20 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 14.6 percent; and 40 percent forecast no change. The 10 manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2023 — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
| Manufacturing Business Revenue | ||||||
| 2022 vs. 2021 | 2023 vs. 2022 | |||||
| Reported Dec 2022 |
% Change | Predicted Dec 2022 | % Change | Predicted May 2023 | % Change | |
| Higher | 60 % | +17.7 % | 45 % | +14.9 % | 40 % | +11.6 % |
| Same | 28 % | NA | 43 % | NA | 40 % | NA |
| Lower | 12 % | -11.3 % | 12 % | -10.3 % | 20 % | -14.6 % |
| Net Average | +9.3 % | +5.5 % | +1.7 % | |||
ServicesThis year, services purchasing and supply management executives predict a net increase of 2.7 percent in sector business revenue compared to 2022. This is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 3.1-percent increase forecast in December, but 0.6 percentage point higher than the 2.1-percent increase reported for 2022. Thirty-eight percent of respondents indicate revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 10.2 percent; 11 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 11.1 percent; and 51 percent expect no change. Fourteen of 18 services industries project revenue increases in 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
| Services Business Revenue | ||||||
| 2022 vs. 2021 | 2023 vs. 2022 | |||||
| Reported Dec 2022 |
% Change | Predicted Dec 2022 |
% Change | Predicted May 2023 | % Change | |
| Higher | 47 % | +9.1 % | 50 % | +8.2 % | 38 % | +10.2 % |
| Same | 35 % | NA | 39 % | NA | 51 % | NA |
| Lower | 18 % | -12.3 % | 11 % | -9.4 % | 11 % | -11.1 % |
| Net Average | +2.1 % | +3.1 % | +2.7 % | |||
SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 1: HIRING WORKERS TO FILL OPEN POSITIONS
We asked the panel, "In the past six months, has your organization had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions?"
Answer options:
- Yes, we have had difficulty hiring
- No, we have not had difficulty hiring
- Not applicable (we have not had any open positions)
- Not applicable (we are on a hiring freeze)
Respondents indicated:
| Hiring Workers to Fill Open Positions | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Reported May 2022 | Reported Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | Reported May 2022 | Reported Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | |
| We have had difficulty hiring | 89 % | 77 % | 67 % | 87 % | 84 % | 67 % |
| We have not had difficulty | 8 % | 21 % | 26 % | 9 % | 10 % | 22 % |
| Not applicable (we have not had any open positions) | 3 % | 1 % | 2 % | 4 % | 6 % | 5 % |
| Not applicable (hiring freeze) | - | - | 5 % | - | - | 6 % |
SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 2: HIRING DIFFICULTIES
We asked the panel, "If 'yes,' what have you done to deal with these difficulties?"
Answer options:
- We raised wages (or used other forms of monetary compensation) to recruit new hires
- We didn't hire/were not able to hire as many workers as we would have liked
- We didn't have difficulty hiring because we weren't trying to hire new workers
- We lowered our hiring standards
- Something else
Respondents indicated:
| "If 'yes,' what have you done to deal with these difficulties?" | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Reported May 2022 | Reported Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | Reported May 2022 | Reported Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | |
| We raised wages | 56 % | 45 % | 47 % | 57 % | 51 % | 41 % |
| We didn't hire as many as we would have liked | 28 % | 34 % | 34 % | 28 % | 32 % | 33 % |
| We weren't trying to hire new workers | - | 10 % | - | - | - | - |
| We lowered our hiring standards | 3 % | 3 % | 5 % | 5 % | 7 % | 4 % |
| Something else | 13 % | 8 % | 14 % | 10 % | 10 % | 21 % |
SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 3: NO HIRING DIFFICULTIES
We asked the panel, "If you have not had difficulty hiring, why not?"
Answer options:
- We raised wages in order to attract the applicants we needed
- We didn't have difficulty hiring because we weren't trying to hire new workers
- The local labor market is not that tight; it was easy to find an ample supply of applicants
- We lowered our hiring standards
- Something else
Respondents indicated:
| "If 'no,' you have not had difficulty hiring, why not?" | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| Reported May 2022 | Reported Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | Reported May 2022 | Reported Dec 2022 | Reported May 2023 | |
| We raised wages | 36 % | 27 % | 38 % | 29 % | 45 % | 25 % |
| We weren't trying to hire new workers | 4 % | 17 % | 18 % | 7 % | 17 % | 13 % |
| It was easy to find an ample supply of applicants | 23 % | 16 % | 19 % | 19 % | 13 % | 17 % |
| We lowered our hiring standards | 7 % | 9 % | 3 % | 11 % | 5 % | 1 % |
| Something else | 30 % | 31 % | 23 % | 34 % | 20 % | 44 % |
SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 4: SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS
We asked the panel, "Do you anticipate supply chain problems for the third quarter/fourth quarter to be better, same or worse?"
Respondents indicated:
| Supply Chain Problems Q3 & Q4 | ||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | |
| Better | 38 % | 46 % | 29 % | 32 % |
| Same | 56 % | 43 % | 63 % | 59 % |
| Worse | 6 % | 12 % | 8 % | 9 % |
| Diffusion Index | 66 % | 67 % | 61 % | 61 % |
SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 5: CAUSE OF SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS
We asked the panel, "Are most of the supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing/services sectors due to foreign developments (for example, microchips or other foreign-sourced supplies) or to domestic developments (such as, port delays or lack of truck drivers or domestically produced supplies like steel or aluminum)?"
Respondents indicated:
| Supply Chain Disruptions | ||||||
| Manufacturing | Services | |||||
| May 2022 | Dec 2022 | May 2023 | May 2022 | Dec 2022 | May 2023 | |
| Foreign-Sourced | 49 % | 56 % | 56 % | 48 % | 49 % | 37 % |
| Domestic-Sourced | 51 % | 44 % | 44 % | 52 % | 51 % | 63 % |
SUMMARY
Manufacturing
- Operating rate is 82 percent of normal capacity.
- Production capacity is expected to increase 0.4 percent in 2023.
- Capital expenditures are expected to increase 0.4 percent in 2023.
- Prices paid increased 2.3 percent through April 2023.
- Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 1 percent for all of 2023, indicating an expected decrease of 1.3 percentage points for the rest of the year.
- Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 0.5 percent in 2023.
- Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 1.7 percent in 2023.
- The manufacturing sector is expected to grow slightly in 2023.
Services
- Operating rate is 91 percent of normal capacity.
- Production capacity is expected to increase 2 percent in 2023.
- Capital expenditures are expected to increase 4 percent in 2023.
- Prices paid increased 5.1 percent through April 2023.
- Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 4.3 percent for all of 2023, indicating expectations of continuing inflation.
- Services employment is expected to increase 0.7 percent in 2023.
- Services revenues are expected to increase 2.7 percent in 2023.
- The services sector is projected to slightly grow in 2023.