Not So Fast. Barclays Has Some Hard Truths About Postpandemic Travel - Barrons

Excerpt from Barrons

Remember jetting off for long weekends in Paris, London, New York? Anywhere? Hold tight to those memories, because even with Covid-19 vaccines, it could take years for travel to return to its prepandemic glory.

That is according to new research by a team of analysts at Barclays, who see lingering damage ahead, especially for countries that rely on tourism to keep their economies going, and those with industries that require international mobility, such as emerging markets.

“Global mobility will be less spontaneous and more expensive and bureaucratic, impacting both business and leisure travel,” said debt research analysts Rahul Bajoria, Angela Hsieh, Brian Tan and Shreya Sodhani, in a report published on Tuesday.

With hopes for a fast reboot of international travel “repeatedly dashed,” the analysts warned of a “period of persistent pandemic, marked by semi-permanent restrictions such as testing requirements and passports.” The European Union, for example, is in the process of relaxing measures for nonmember visitors, but individual countries may still be able to set their own requirements and quarantine arrangements.

“Global mobility directly powered about 10% of global GDP [gross domestic product] before the pandemic. The damage will not be confined to 2020, but will linger,” said the analysts, citing data from the International Civil Aviation Organization that predict prepandemic air travel won’t likely return until 2026.

One result is a shrinking global tourism market, they said.

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